Is the Health of Older Persons in OECD Countries Improving Fast Enough to Compensate for Population Ageing?

This paper extends the examination of trends in disability among the elderly for a set of OECD countries for which consistent information is available over time. There appears to be a significant fall in severe disability rates, especially in private households. The data on disability rates are combined with population projections to yield projections of the numbers of disabled elderly persons over the period up to 2020. The paper compares a projection assuming that recent trends in disability rates persist over the projected period and another assuming stable rates of disability. While health improvements of older populations are an important factor in terms of welfare, they have mixed effects on public finances. It appears that de-institutionalisation, with increased recourse to community care, plays a larger role than disability trends in terms of public finances.