Trends in Rates of Onset of and Recovery from Disability at Older Ages: 1982-1994
Publication Abstract
Wolf DA, Mendes de Leon C, Glass T. 2007. Trends in Rates of Onset of and Recovery from Disability at Older Ages: 1982-1994. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences Forthcoming.
Objectives. Although there is substantial evidence of declining prevalence of disability among the older population during the late 1980s and 1990s, evidence on trends in the underlying dynamics of disability is lacking. We estimate models of transitions between discrete disability and vital states that incorporate simple linear time trends.
Methods. We analyze data from the 1982-1994 interviews of the New Haven Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE) study, and use three alternative measures of disability status. We estimate separate models of disability prevalence and disability transitions by gender.
Results. Eleven of 12 estimated trends in transition rates are statistically significant. For men and women, and for three alternative disability indicators, we find downward trends in rates of both onset of and recovery from disability among people age 75 and over. We do not find any consistent pattern of trends in disability among those aging into the 75-plus group during this period.
Conclusions. Our findings are consistent with declining population-level disability prevalence only if any downward trend in onset outweighs the downward trend in recovery. These findings are also consistent with a trend towards more severe disability problems among the disabled population.
Methods. We analyze data from the 1982-1994 interviews of the New Haven Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE) study, and use three alternative measures of disability status. We estimate separate models of disability prevalence and disability transitions by gender.
Results. Eleven of 12 estimated trends in transition rates are statistically significant. For men and women, and for three alternative disability indicators, we find downward trends in rates of both onset of and recovery from disability among people age 75 and over. We do not find any consistent pattern of trends in disability among those aging into the 75-plus group during this period.
Conclusions. Our findings are consistent with declining population-level disability prevalence only if any downward trend in onset outweighs the downward trend in recovery. These findings are also consistent with a trend towards more severe disability problems among the disabled population.